Yen firming
July 11, 2023
–DXY getting weaker; gold getting a little bounce. $/yen from 144.30 to 140.42 in four sessions.
–Consumer credit, expected $20b in May was actually $7.24b with non-revolving (auto and student loans) falling $1.26b. High financing rates, falling used car prices and the possibility that student loans may actually have to be paid off are likely reasons.
–Today NFIB small business optimism is released. It was 89.4 last and 89.0 for April, lows since 2013. Three year auction as well, followed by 10s and 30s Wed and Thursday. CPI tomorrow.
–Yields fell yesterday despite hawkish Fed comments. Daly, of course, echoed Powell in saying a couple more hikes may be needed this year. Five-year led the drop, down nearly 9 bps to 4.244%. On the SOFR curve reds, greens and blues, +11.875, +12.75 and +10.5. SFRZ3/Z4 one-year calendar fell 9.5 bps to -132.5 (9463.5/9596.0) and is again the lowest one-yr spread, with H4/H5 -128.
–Disturbing stat from JA on the explosive increase in Americans with disability. From mid-2014 to 2019 the number was fairly constant at 29-31 million. Since covid it’s pretty much straight up to over 34 million (new high). And that’s BEFORE they reinstate the military draft.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker-Nad
