Treasury having no problem placing debt
February 9, 2024
******************
–Quiet day in rates. Thirty year auction was solid, WI 4.38 at time of auction, but the actual result was 2 bps thru at 4.36%. Barkin added his voice to Fed speakers who, outside of Goolsbee, don’t seem to be in any hurry to cut rates. From the bullet points prefacing Barkin’s speech, “Given robust demand and a historically strong labor market, we have time to build that confidence before we begin the process of toggling rates down.” Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, speaks this afternoon and is likely on the same page; from her Jan 6 speech, “…the job of restoring price stability is not yet complete.”
–Today’s brings annual seasonal revisions to CPI. In case missed yesterday:
https://think.ing.com/articles/why-us-cpi-revisions-could-be-a-big-deal-or-mean-nothing-at-all
Monthly CPI release is Tuesday.
–Yellen’s comment yesterday that “We don’t need to get prices down because wages are going up” rings a bit hollow to the average household. If she had said “we don’t have to get prices down because the tech darlings are going up” it would be more truthful. Feels a lot like the dotcom run up. Uber is up 75% since end of October, 40 to 71.66. Dash is up a similar amount, 70 to 118.30. Certainly doesn’t feel as if financial conditions are tight. However, it depends on one’s location on the economic spectrum. McDonald’s CEO acknowledged that his consumer base is increasingly strapped and McD needs to focus on affordability.
–Crude oil has had a nice pop of $4/bbl this week. Last Friday’s settle in CLH4 was 7228 against yesterday’s 7622, +236 on the day.
