Time to buy an RV? Or Rolex
August 27, 2024
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–Last week PDD (parent of Temu) traded 150. Today, after warning on revenue, it’s 100. A BBG headline says this: crash “…Sends a warning on Chinese Economy” but it’s likely more than just China. Nasdaq Comp down 0.85%… NVDA reports Wednesday. Vast amounts of capital can appear or evaporate very quickly in this environment.
–Rates were quiet, though there were a couple of interesting large trades. SFRU4 9512.5/9518.75/9525c fly traded 0.25 about 20k and settled there ref 9507.75. The b/e is 9512.75 to 9524.75…pretty wide window with 23 days until FOMC. Why count the weekends instead of just trading days? Because a big geopolitical bomb could go off on any given day. As an aside, CLV4 up 2.59 yesterday to 77.42 on Mideast spiral.
–New low settle in SFRU4/U5 1-yr calendar at -168.75; traded as low as -172.5.
–Also a buyer of 50k TYV4 113p for 18, and then 112.75p, paid 18 for about 30k. New positions: TYV 113p settled 22 with OI increase of 36k and 112.75p settled 18 with OI +39k. On the day, total TY futures OI +91k to 5.522m. Bearish signal even though 10y yield only rose 1.7 bps to 3.816%. 2yr auction today, followed by 5’s and 7’s Wed, Thurs.
–Consumer Confidence expected 100.9 vs 100.3 last.
–Just a couple of anecdotal clips indicating that all is not well. The first is from watchcharts.com The luxury watch market is sliding (but at least it’s holding better than that Winnebago you bought post-covid!)
From ZH:
RV Downturn Turns Apocalyptic With Largest Dealership Offering 55% Discounts
LazyDays Holdings (GORV) an RV retailer, has seen its stock slip from 3 in December to 1.75 yesterday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rv-downturn-entering-apocalyptic-mode-largest-dealership-offering-55
