The whole yen, recession, emergency ease thing was just… nevermind
August 16, 2024
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–Retail sales expected +0.4 and actual +1.0%, enough to send SOFR contracts hurtling lower from precarious highs. Leader was SFRM5 which ended -20.5 at 9639.5; I had highlighted the settlement of 9661 the other day as being around 200 under the current FF target midpoint. The two-year yield jumped 15 to 4.097% while tens rose 10.5 to 3.923%. Odds for a 50 bp cut are slipping away, with FFV4 settling 9498.5, down 3 on the day. A cut of 25 bps at the Sept meeting would put FFV4 at 9492.0
–NDX partied like it was Nov of 1999, +2.3% yesterday. From Nov’99 to March’00 CCMP went from 3000 to 5000. Maybe that’s the analog.
–Buyer of 50k TYV4 113.5p for 58 covered 50d vs 113-17, straddle price of 154 which is where the Oct straddle settled. Open interest in the put increased 44.5k.
–A friend sent the following link yesterday, regarding employment in the transportation sector.
https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/us-cargo-and-passenger-airlines-gained-200196-jobs-june-2024
| U.S. Cargo and Passenger Airlines Gained 200,196 Jobs in June 2024 | Bureau of Transportation StatisticsU.S. airline industry (passenger and cargo airlines combined) employment increased to 1,002,700 workers in June 2024, 200,196 (24.95%) more workers than in May 2024 (802,504).www.bts.gov |
Looks official. Next time you see labor stats, economic data, or a political poll, just remember that in June 2024, Fed Ex doubled its workforce, adding 198k jobs to a total of 438k. Does that data look correct? Is that filtered into NFP?
–Chicago Dem Convention starts next week. No missives for the next few days, I’m leaving town.
Here’s The HU. Good way to start the trading day. Mongolian Metal. I don’t understand it, but I like it. And if played at the right volume, it’s appropriately mind-numbing.
