Rate futures ignore weak data
June 21, 2024
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–Data weak on Thursday. Housing Starts -5.5% m/m, Philly Fed only 1.3 vs expected at 5.0. However, a brief pop in treasuries immediately reversed. Tens ended +3.3 bps to 4.25%. NVDA posted a new high, outside day, lower close, ending -3.5%. Another high flier, Chipotle (CMG), had nearly doubled from the low in October, but closed -6.2%. Perhaps a sign that speculative froth has run its course.
–Today’s news includes S&P PMI Mfg expected 51.0 from 51.3 last.
–GCQ4 settled 2369, up 22.10 on the day. CLQ4 settled 81.29, up 0.58 on the day. $/yen is 158.60 this morning with warnings of intervention, CNY is 7.26, a new low in yuan for this calendar year.
–SOFR contracts down 4 to 4.5 from reds through golds…from Sept’25 through Sept’29. Every contract between Dec’25 and Dec’30 is between 9609 or 3.91% (SFRZ5) and 9641 or 3.59% (SFRU7, peak on the curve). July Treasury options expire today. TYN4 110.5^ settled 17/64 vs 110-175.
