Powell today
July 9, 2024
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–NFIB Small Business Confidence expected 90.2. The lowest print of the year was in March, at 88.5. That has also been the lowest since 2013; there’s been almost no bounce. From the last report: “Main Street remains pessimistic about the economy for the balance of the year,”
–Powell testifies today in front of Senate Banking Committee at 10:00, tomorrow at the House.
I’m just glad Bob Menendez is still sitting on the committee, because he and I share an interest in the value of gold and maybe he can ask Powell a few questions about it. Of course, Menendez got his gold bars as a bribe… [if there’s anyone in politics who should step down, it’s this guy]
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-senator-robert-menendez-his-wife-and-three-new-jersey-businessmen-charged-bribery
–Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan on CNBC yesterday: “I think risk management will dictate a rate cut in September”…but he characterized it as more of game-day decision. In any case, FFV4 settled 9487 or 5.13%, -1 on the day. A Fed cut would bring EFFR to 5.08%, so odds for an ease in Sept are currently around 80%. Rates trading was subdued yesterday, with little net change. Near SOFR contracts were -2 but everything else showed net change of -1.5 to 0, and that includes the treasury curve.
–Three year auction today followed by 10s and 30s Wednesday and Thursday.
–Michigan’s Whitmer appears to have dropped out of the Dem presidential race. Biden’s bravado is buying time to whittle down the potential list of replacements to one or two that the establishment can support. Illinois Governor Pritzker is trying to buy his way onto that list, though his policies have caused residents to flee. “Illinois lost 83839 residents who moved to other states, one of the highest rates in the US, driving a 10th consecutive year of population decline.” Who lost more than Illinois? CA, and Newsom is also running. If either one of these guys wins, the immigration problem will be solved, as they are experts at driving people out of their jurisdictions.
Chicago shootings: At least 103 shot, 19 fatally, in citywide holiday weekend gun violence, CPD says
https://abc7chicago.com/post/chicago-shootings-weekend-least-101-shot-18-fatally/15041696
