PMI soft
April 24, 2024
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–PMI Mfg was 49.9 vs an expected 52.0 and Composite was 50.9 vs 52.0. Yields fell as a result. Tens ended down 2 bps at 4.596%. Strongest SOFR contracts were SFRM5 and U5, both up 6 at 9548.5 and 9563.5. Solid 2y auction. Fives today. Sevens tomorrow. PCE prices are Friday. Next week includes FOMC, Quarterly Refunding Announcement and Payrolls.
–SFRZ4 settled 9511 (+4.5) or 4.89% vs 5.33 Fed Effective. 1.5 to 2 eases priced. SOFR calendars just slightly further back are all around 3/4%. SFRM4/M5 settled -74 (lowest). SFRU4/U4 -71.5. FFQ4/Q5 -74.5. The market is currently comfortable around these levels
–From S&P global : “April saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six months. Companies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four years, with business confidence also waning to the lowest since last November.”
–Indonesia hiked 25 bps to 6.25% which was unexpected, though all Asian currencies have been pressured against USD. $/yen remains pinned close to 155 on the eve of the BOJ meeting.
“This hike in interest rates is to strengthen the stability of the rupiah exchange rate against the risk of worsening global risks,” BI Governor Perry Warjiyo told a briefing.
–TSLA soared after its earnings call, squeezing shorts. META today.
