Payrolls – all prices will be met
April 5, 2024
*************
–Payrolls today expected 200k with the unemployment rate at 3.9% (vs 275 and 3.9 last). The last time the UE rate was 4.0 was in January 2022, it has been in the 3’s since then with a low of 3.4. Consumer Credit at end of day, was +$19.49 billion for Jan.
–Yesterday afternoon stocks tumbled, with SPX ending -1.2% and NasComp -1.4%. Kashkari warned the Fed may not ease at all this year; Israel put forces on high-alert in expectation of Iranian response, Blinken said Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Oh, and bird-flu is making the rounds. Markets have become a lot more uncertain, with VIX jumping to 16.6.
–Rate futures experienced some flight-to-quality buying, though tens ended down only 3.8 bps to 4.315%. Every SOFR contract from Sept’24 to Sept’27 was up 3.5 to 4.5. Treasury auctions 3s, 10s and 30s next week. You need ‘quality’? The treasury is here to help. In size. By the way, these auctions settle on 15-April which is also tax day, a temporary withdrawal of private liquidity bestowed upon the Solons of the federal gov’t for benevolent distribution to weapons manufacturers.
