NFIB optimism. Will it bear out?
December 10, 2024
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–Yields a touch higher in front of this week’s auctions; 3y today. Ten year re-open tomorrow, ended at 4.197% up 4.8 bps on the day. On the SOFR strip reds through golds down 3 to 4 bps. Notable new buyer of 50k SFRJ5 9625/9700cs for 11.0. Settled 11 ref 9608 in SFRM5.
–Nasdaq Comp slight outside day range after posting a new all-time high. Reversal signal (for short-term at least).
–Today’s news, just released, includes NFIB Small Biz Optimism 93.7 last. Surged to 101.7 in November. Not surprising given election results. From NFIB:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98. This is the highest reading since June 2021.
From Chief Economist Dunkelberg
“The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”
–Tomorrow is the big data point: CPI. SFRZ4 options and Dec midcurves expire Friday. SFRZ4 9562.5 straddle settled 4.5 with futures right at strike. 0QZ4 (red) 9625^ settled 11.5 with SFRZ5 9626.
–RBA held rates steady, but aussie dollar is near the low of the year (0.6397 in expiring Dec future). Hang Seng continues to surge after China’s vows of support for equities, property.
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