ISM Mfg today, NFP on Friday
June 3, 2024
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—Vicious end-of-month squeeze in stocks Friday. In the last half hour ESM rocketed 65 points from 5242 to 5307 and is holding this morning at 5302.5 (+7.0 from settle). CLN4 just slightly lower after OPEC extended voluntary production cuts. US yields eased Friday with 10s down 4 bps to 4.512% (now 4.473). TYU4 settled 108-25+ and is currently 109-01+.
–ISM Mfg this morning, expected 49.6 from 49.2. Since late 2022 it has been sub-50 with the exception of a 50.3 print for March. Prices Paid expected 59.5 from 60.9 last. Prices have shown strength, having moved up from 45.2 at the end of last year.
–On Friday John Deere (DE) announced layoffs and other operational cost saving moves, citing declining demand. Earlier in the year DE announced 684 layoffs across plants in Iowa and Illinois. DE is moving some production from the US to Mexico. MXN has generally strengthened against USD since covid, (from 24.00 to 16.26 this year) but it is weakening in the wake of Claudia Scheinbaum’s landslide win for President. I have also included a chart of JPY vs MXN…possible that MXN is turning here?
–ISM Services Wednesday. Payrolls on Friday expected 180 to 190k from 175 last. ECB fully expected to cut 25 on Thursday.
