Gradually, then suddenly
August 16, 2021
–The takeover of Kabul and destabilization of the region is likely to become a dominant policy topic; one that can’t be fixed with more stimulus. From the AP: “President Joe Biden and other top US officials were stunned on Sunday by the pace of the Taliban’s nearly complete takeover of Afghanistan, as the planned withdrawal of American forces urgently became a [chaotic] mission to ensure a safe evacuation.” Not much of a safety bid so far, though bitcoin traded just over 48k and TYU traded up to 134-12 vs Friday’s settle of 133-305. It will probably take a few months for ramifications to play out.
–China’s data was weaker than expected, with Ind Production 6.4% vs expected 7.8 and Retail Sales 8.5 vs 11.5. US Retail Sales tomorrow, along with a town hall meeting by Powell.
–A BBG note by Tracy Alloway says that CCC spreads have been widening for the past month, which is unusual with stocks near all-time highs. This dynamic doesn’t seem to be reflected by HYG or JNK for now.
–The City of Chicago is sending automated tickets to drivers going over 6 mph above the posted speed limit (in the name of safety). The Tribune reports 300,000 tickets in the first two months, netting the city $11 million dollars, though I doubt anything close to that amount will be collected. The Trib also reports 47 shot and 5 killed over the weekend. Bad policies lead to bad outcomes and stunned officials.
