Front end pressure
March 18, 2025
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–Retail sales a bit soft yesterday and Empire State Mfg sank to -20.0 vs -1.9 expected, but front end yields pushed higher. Two-yr up 3.3 bps to 4.05%, while tens were nearly unch’d, with the yield down less than 1 bp to 4.302%. TYM5 settled down 1/32 at 110-19+, while USM5 was +7/32 to 116-31. On the SOFR strip, SFRU5 weakest, -5.0 to 9609.5, U6 -2.5 to 9639.0 (peak contract), U7 -1.5 to 9632.5 and U8 -0.5 to 9620.5.
–Geopolitical issues dominate. Israel/Hamas truce crumbled, with Israel striking, fearing an imminent ground invasion. German spending vote at 2:30 Berlin time (9:30 NY). EUR continues to press higher, from sub-104 at the start of March to 1.0947 currently. Trump/Putin call later today.
–There was a blurb on FT about the Indonesian market getting crushed. Symbol on BBG is JCI (Jakarta Composite). This market has been in a downtrend since Q4, and spiked to a new low today. Cautionary note is that there have been a series of countertrend rallies, each followed by a sharp break to new lows. Today’s was especially vicious, more than 7% drop to today’s low from yesterday’s close.
–NVDA’s GTC (AI) conference today will feature a presentation by Jensen Huang.
–FFK5 settled 9572. A 25 bp cut at the May 7 FOMC, which I expect, would lead to a settle near 9586.5, while no change would be 9567 (at the current EFFR of 4.33%).
–From the NY Fed’s Survey of Conditions:
The share of discouraged borrowers, defined as respondents reporting that they did not apply for any credit because they did not think they would get approved (despite reporting a need for credit), reached 8.5 percent, the highest level since the start of the survey in October 2013.
