Fear and Greed? Nah, just fear
June 13, 2022
–New lows in stock index futures this morning as we slide into quarterly expiration. Current ESM -95.00 at 3805.50. Rate futures have also plunged as fears of a 75 bp hike have gripped the market. EDM3, the weakest contract on the ED strip settled 9808.0 on Friday and is currently -23.0 at 9585.0. This contract is down over 100 bps from May 27 high, 10 sessions ago. Bitcoin is down 5000 sub 24000, and gold is just below 1860, down around $16/oz. Nowhere to hide today. TYU2 down nearly a point at 116-01.
–Friday’s U of Mich Consumer Sentiment made a new low at 50.2, beneath the 2008 plunge, and the start of this week isn’t going to help. Brainard speaks at a Community Reinvestment forum this afternoon.
–This morning prints 9798.5 in August Fed Funds, which captures this week’s and the July 27 FOMC. Current Fed Effective is 83, so with Aug at 201.5, that’s a total of 118.5 bps priced (with the 75 bp shot being primarily embedded in the July meeting). It’s going to be a day, perhaps a week, of wide markets and forced position exits.
