Earth is Shaking
Dec 6, 2024
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–Going into today’s payroll report (NFP expected 210 to 220k, rate 4.1) longer end contracts closed near the highs of the past week. TYH5 settled 111-065, down 1.5/32s, but well off the week’s low of 110-18. It feels like the market is set up a bit short, looking for a solid rebound in payrolls, but shorts were forced to pare back going into the data. Open interest in nearer treasuries fell, TU -14k, FV -52k, TY -24k, but UXY was +44k, US and WN had smaller changes which cancelled out.
–Large early sales of FFF5 and FFG5 : F5 35k at 9560.5 and G5 8k at 9566.5. Market leans toward ease at the Dec 18 FOMC, but these trades are a fade.
–Large earthquake off the northern coast of CA appeared to spark some buyers with warnings of a tsunami. Shortly after, buyer of 15 k SFRM5. U5 9650 c stupid 36.5 to 37.0. Settled 13 vs 9604 and 23.5 vs 9615.5. Later, a buyer of 25k TY wk2 (12/13) 112c for 10. Settled there ref 111-065. All of these buys are new.
–United Healthcare CEO was shot and killed in Manhattan. Stock ended -32 or 5.2%. Bond vigilantes aren’t quite as serious…
The three words were written on the ammunition a masked gunman used to kill UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, according to two law enforcement officials who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday. They’re similar to the phrase “delay, deny, defend” — the way some attorneys describe how insurers deny services and payment, and the title of a 2010 book that was highly critical of the industry.
