Confidence Game
March 25, 2025
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–Yields moved solidly higher Monday, with tens up 9.1 bps to 4.329%, matching the current EFFR of 4.33%. Yields in front of tens are lower and longer maturities are higher. SFRM5 settled down 5 at 9587.5 or 4.125%. That’s not even one full ease, with FOMCs on May 7 and June 18.
–Stocks powered higher, with SPX up 1.8%. As of yesterday’s close, SPX has reclaimed 246 points or 39% of the mid-Feb to mid-March plunge of 623 points. The Fib 38.2 retrace is 5759, yesterday’s close was 5767.
–Late buyer TY wk4 (3/28) 110.5c 0’17 covered 110-17, (32 in straddle) 35k. Settled 17 vs 110-175.
–Today’s news: Philly Fed Services were -13.1 last. New Home Sales expected 680k from 657k. Consumer Confidence expected 94.0 which would be lowest in 4 years. Does the soft data portend lower economic activity? (Powell questioned the same thing at last week’s press conference). 2y auction.
–FNMA ended above $7, having been near $1 pre-election. From mid-Jan to now it’s been between 5 and 8, and is currently trying the upside again. FMCC looks similar Will privatization of the GSEs spark easier conditions in the housing/mortgage markets?
