Archive for the ‘Eurodollar Options’ Category
Weaker than expected CPI provides no comfort for bonds
March 13, 2025**************** –CPI was a little better than expected with monthly readings of 0.2 both headline and Core. Headline yoy was 2.8 vs expected 3.0 and 3.1 on Core vs 3.2. PPI today. –However, bonds traded weaker on the day, partially due to continued supply. Ten year auction went well with a yield of […]
SFRH5 opts rolling off Friday. Where will SFRM5 be on 13-June opt expiration
March 12, 2025**************** –Despite equity market volatility yields rose yesterday with tens up 7.5 bps to 4.286%. Today brings CPI and 10-yr auction of $39b. CPI expected 0.3 headline and Core with yoy 2.9 (from 3.0) and Core 3.2 (3.3). In February, the ten-yr breakeven (10y yld minus inflation-indexed 10y) hit a high of 247 […]
All about stocks
March 11, 2025****************–SPX fell 2.7% and Nasdaq Comp fell 4.0%. Decline from the highs is of greater magnitude than seen last August (yen-carry scare). Signs of a short-term bounce this morning. –FFN5 settled 9600.5 (+6.0 on the day) or just under 4% vs current EFFR of 4.33%. FOMCs next week (nothing expected) then May 7 […]
Stocks start the week weak
March 10, 2025****************** –Friday’s payroll data was about as expected with NFP 151k and the Unemployment rate up 1/10th to 4.1%. However, U-6 jumped 0.5 to 8.0%. Then year yield rose 2.9 bps to 4.315%. –JOLTS tomorrow expected 7665k from 7600k last. The high in 2022 which preceded peak CPI of 9.1 by a few […]
DETOX
March 9, 2025 – Weekly Comment************************************* They tried to make me go to rehab, but I said “No, no, no”Yes I’ve been black, but when I come back, you’ll know, know, know–Amy Winehouse – Rehab “…the market and the economy have just become hooked; we’ve been addicted to this government spending. And there’s going […]
Payrolls & Powell
March 7, 2025*************** –Payrolls today expected 160k from 143 last. Unemployment rate expected 4.0%, unchanged from last. Powell speech on the Economic Outlook at 12:30. –Midcurve March SOFR options expire in one week. 0QH5 9643.75^ settled 20.25 (ref 9643.5), quite high for a one-week period, but not an easy sale given the backdrop. –Yesterday’s action […]
Global bond rout
March 6, 2025*************** –The on/off uncertainty inspired by the current administration appears to be resolving with risk assets paying the price. Stocks starting off on the back foot with ESH5 currently in the red about 66 points near 5785, down about 1.2%. Of course, less than stellar earnings also playing a part. The proximate culprit […]
‘There’ll be a little disturbance but we’re ok with that’
March 5, 2025*************** “a little disturbance” is the only thing I saw regarding the Trump speech last night, and for once, he seems to be prone to “a little” understatement. –Wild price action across markets. This morning CLJ5 is 67.08, down 1.18, right back to Nov and Dec levels from a high near 78 in […]
Weak data
March 4, 2025****************–ISM Mfg weak. 50.3 vs 50.7 expected. Prices hit a new recent high at 62.4. New Orders and Employment both sub-50 48.6 and 47.6. –Buyer early: 40k TYK 112c for 43. Settled 56 vs TYM5 111-13 (new high for the move). Cash 10y yield closed at 4.18, down 4.7 bps on the day […]
New low treasury yields for 2025, new high vol
March 3, 2025****************–Trump announces Crypto Strategic Reserve, causing bitcoin to jump 10%. Precious metals also rebounding, but in a much more muted way. GCJ +34.50 to 2883, up 1.2%. –Friday featured new low yields for this calendar year, with tens down 5.6 bps to 4.227%. 2y now just under 4% at 3.995 (-8.3 bps). PCE […]
