Can Talyor Swift keep the economy humming forever?
October 2, 2023
–A couple of morning headlines might give the idea that bonds are finding support:
Reuters: Eurozone factory activity stuck in steep downturn
FT: Asia faces one of the worst economic outlooks in half a century, World bank warns.
But…WSJ: American’s still spend like there’s no tomorrow. [Can Taylor Swift keep this economy humming forever?]
And…Congress averted a shutdown in order to keep the US Gov’t open. TYZ3 is currently printing 107-20, -14, nearing new lows.
–Late Friday there were a couple of large put buys: TY wk2 106.25p 8 paid 10k and TY wk2 106 put, 7 paid 10k, both new, settled 8 and 6 ref 108-02. Expire Oct 13. Just prior to those buys were a couple of large call purchases: +20k TYX 110/112cs for 11 (settled there) and +20k TYX 111c for 7. With the government open, NFP will be released Friday.
–Powell and Harker will participate in a roundtable discussion at 11:00. This morning ISM Mfg expected 47.7 from 47.6 last, with prices 48.6 expected from 48.4.
