Black Keys playing at the neighborhood bar down the street
June 4, 2024
*************
–This past weekend I mentioned a few developments in the financial landscape that echoed initial problems in 2007 which culminated in the GFC. Of course, today’s issues – problems in private credit and commercial real estate funds – probably don’t rise to the same level of systemic stress. However, Monday’s trade certainly had a whiff of something not quite right in the financial architecture.
–For example, 5, 10 and 30 year yields sank 10-11 bps (10y down 11.2 to 4.40%). Implied vol in treasuries firmed up. Gold rebounded and oil was hammered, with CLN4 down nearly $3/bbl late at 74.05 (and it’s below 73 this morning). USD traded lower. Just FEELS like something is going on beneath the surface. Stocks were weaker early but floated back to edge slightly positive given the cue of lower interest rates.
–ISM Mfg weakened at 48.7 vs 49.5 expected. New Orders soft, but the Employment component was 51.1, stronger than estimated. JOLTS today 8350k exp vs 8488k last. In the anecdotal news dept, a story making the rounds is that several major concert tours have been cancelled (J-Lo) while some artists shift to smaller venues (Black Keys). From a Yahoo article: “SeatGeek said in an email that the average resale ticket price to attend a summer concert is down to $213 from $257 around this time last year.” DEFLATION! Thanks Taylor. There are also legal actions pending against Live Nation and Ticketmaster which may be contributing to a slower season.
‘they want to get my gold on the ceiling/ i ain’t blind, just a matter of time/ before you steal it’
