Bitcoin up/ Gold down / School’s out
November 12, 2024
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–Light volume as treasuries were closed. Flattening bias with SOFR reds down 7.5 but greens -7.125 and blues -6.25.
–Bitcoin explosion with Dec futures up over 10k late to 88300. Precious metals went the other way as DXY continues to rally. DXY now near 106. Dec Gold down nearly $15 this morning at 2603/oz. DXY 105.87.
–Buyer of about 30k SFRH5 9600/9625/9637.5 broken call fly for 3.5 to 3.75, even as odds for more Fed easing are squeezed out (SFRH5 settle 9578). FFG5 which captures both Dec and Jan FOMC meetings settled 9566.5, down 2. That ‘s a rate of 4.335; new EFFR is 4.58 so looking for just one more ease over two meetings. Actually. a bit more priced for the Dec 18 meeting than Jan 29; FFF5/FFG5 settled -7.5 (9559/9566.5).
–NFIB and SLOOS today. NFIB just out at 93.7, but these are pre-election surveys. There are several Fed speakers, most important is Waller at 10, but he’s talking about payments.
–Trump to dismantle the national Education department. He says results can’t get much worse and is probably right.
