And then, depression set in
August 13, 2024
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–PPI today expected 0.2 for both headline and core. Yields fell yesterday with 10s down 3.5 bps to 3.907%. Probably should just ignore the interest rate arena and buy gold for the inevitable $100 run as soon as GCZ4 breaks through 2525.
–From NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Labor market expectations were mixed, with respondents expecting lower earnings growth and a lower likelihood of finding a new job within three months if they were laid off. Delinquency expectations continued their upward trend in July and have risen to the highest level since April 2020.”
To paraphrase: “making less, worried about getting sh-t canned, and the car is about to be repo’d”.
On the plus side, KFC expands its $5 meal offerings.
There used to be a goofy kid trading eurodollars in the third and fourth on the CME floor with the acronym KFC. Nicknamed, “the colonel”.
–New buyer yesterday of 20k TYU4 114.5c for 13, settled 12 ref TYU4 113-075. Also a large buy of SFRH5 9800/9900c 2×3 for 3.5 to 3.75; size of 60k x 90k. Settles 3.75 and 1.25 so 2×3 3.75s ref H5 9620.5. In a way, might as well consider SFRZ4 9700c which settled 4.0 ref 9575. If the wheels are about to come off, the next few months ought to do it.
–NFIB Small Business Optimism Index popped up to 93.7 this morning. However, NFIB economist Bill Dunkelberg was suitably downbeat:
“Despite this increase in optimism, the road ahead remains tough for the nation’s small business owners… Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line. Owners are heading towards unpredictable months ahead, not knowing how future economic conditions or government policies will impact them.”
C’mon Bill, let’s go out for a couple of Leinenkugel’s and take the edge off… my buy.
Yes, I know I’ve used this clip before. And, I will use it again.
