At least the ads are over
November 4, 2020
“The Associated Press will not predict a winner of the presidential election. It will not even name an apparent or likely winner. The A.P. will make the call only when it is certain — just as it has in every U.S. election since 1848, when Zachary Taylor won the White House.”
“Over? Did you say ‘over’? Nothing is over until we decide it is!” -Bluto
–On a Biden victory, I thought Russell should get hit relative to SPX. Since that’s what is happening right now, RTYZ0 -37.00 and ESZ unch’d, I guess I will fit the narrative to my original theory and figure that Biden has prevailed. However, I can’t quite account for the bond rally besides noting that positioning seemed heavily weighted to the short side (which will ultimately prove out, in my opinion). Treasury refunding announcement today, as a small reminder of massive supply.
–The seller of 50k TYZ 138/137ps delta neutral first thing yesterday morning has a nice trade with TYZ 138-24 vs settle of 138-03. Likewise the previous buyer of 50-60k TYZ 139/138/137.5 put trees for 3 to 5 a week and a half ago appears to have pegged the market with a current quote of 18/20 vs 138-23+. Finally the seller of 45k in a couple of clips of TYF 136.5/139.5 strangle at 44 and 40 has come back from a deficit during the day yesterday to victory this morning, with a mid-market of 35. Vol has been pummeled with TYZ 138.75^ 1’00/1’02 vs settlement of atm 138^ yesterday of 1’20. The curve is flatter this morning, having gone into election day with most measures near the high of the year.
–2020. It’s not over yet.
