brief note
February 3, 2025
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–Starting the month of February with weakness in equities related to Trump imposing tariffs. Dollar surged. Fixed income markets remain weak; on late Friday’s stock sell-off treasuries also fell. TYH5 settled Friday at 108-27. Current print is 108-28+ with ESH 5985 (-82.25).
–In ESH5 the 200 DMA is 5765. The low on Oct 2 was 5776, the low on Nov 4 was 5784, and the low so far in 2025 was on Jan 13, at 5809. Until prices decisively break through these levels, it’s hard to argue that the long term trend has reversed.
–Today’s news includes ISM Mfg, expected 49.9 from 49.3 last. It’s been below 50 since November 2022.
