Taking my bitcoins and moving to Sardinia
November 21, 2024
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–Note: Due to a glitch in the matrix, this note may come out sporadically, if at all, going forward.
–Yields rose yesterday with tens +2.9 bps to 4.404%. On the SOFR strip, SFRZ5 was the weakest at -5.0 to a price of 9610.5 or 3.895%. Five yr yield was +3.2% 4.273%. SFRH5 settled -2 at 9575.5 or 4.245%, just under the 5y yield. In fact, every SOFR contract from H5 forward is at a yield below the 5y, so there’s small positive carry going into next year. Peak SOFR contract is currently U7 at 9621. The forward three years starting Z5 average around a price of 9615 or 3.85%. It’s the long bond that you’ve got to worry about….currently 4.59%; 5/30 is 32 bps
–Major factor yesterday was a report that Ukraine was firing UK-made missiles (parts made in China) into Russia. Equities sold off but then rebounded going into day’s end. Once again there was a buyer of SFRZ4 9600c for 0.5. Besides that, there wasn’t much in the way of disaster buying. DXY remains BID near 107. Bitcoin is the star of the show, now nearing 98k. NVDA results were seen as slightly disappointing with the stock down ~ 3% pre-market.
–News today includes Philly Fed expected 8.0 from 10.3. Jobless claims 220k. Existing home sales.
–Debating the move to Sardinia. (A town there is making a pitch to dissatisfied Americans). The problem of course, is that it might be lousy with Democrats. On the one hand, Ellen DeGeneres is moving to London…dodged a bullet there. On the other hand, Eva Longoria is spending time in Spain…maybe Sardinia is an attractive home base.
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