Changes
October 17, 2024
******************
–Retail Sales today expected 0.3 from 0.1, ex-auto and gas +0.3 from 0.2. Jobless Claims 260k, Ind Production -0.1 from +0.8. Philly Fed 3.0 from 1.7.
–As attached chart shows, new recent low yesterday in SFRH5/H6 at -61.5 (9608.5/9670). SFRU4/U5 is -134 (U4 continues to trade) and Z4/Z5 is -99 (9655.5/9665.5) so the roll suggests H5/H6 can continue to slide, IF nothing happens to suggest a renewed shift to aggressive easing. Of course, there’s another way the spread could rally and that’s if the back contracts sell off hard on the idea that the Fed may no longer be in an ‘easing cycle’ on a change in US administration. Druckenmiller says markets are convinced of a Trump win. Would likely change the perceived trajectory of easing. Not quite sure why treasury vol would be seeping out, but it did. TYZ4 112.5^ now 2’04 from 2’10 Tuesday.
–ECB today with a cut of 25 expected.
–Precious metals near ath. CLX anchored around 70. GCZ4 settled 2691.30. High settle has been 2694.90 on Sept 26.
