Bulletproof
July 22, 2024
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–I thought it would be an open Democratic convention when Biden dropped, but the media now claims that all big donors are solidly behind Harris, even though the same media said large donors were left exasperated after a strategy call on Friday. Some of the headlines:
NBC News: ‘Ludicrous’: Donors leave call with Kamala Harris frustrated and annoyed
The Independent: Some Democrat donors reportedly left fuming after Kamala Harris call: ‘A total failure’
–In any case, I am not too sure that a Trump win is positive for markets. Gov’t deficits have been a big growth driver, and may be trimmed. Immigrants have boosted both costs and growth (now may reverse). Core Service prices which have been the inflation thorn, consist of shelter, health costs, transportation. Not sure about shelter, but I would imagine RFK as HHS head would cut health care costs, open drilling would reduce energy/transport costs. High tariffs would be inflationary. Ending Russia/Ukraine war reduces demand for US weapons. Overall, a lot of uncertainty. Copper prices keep going lower, but I would imagine heavy demand as the US turns inward for basic manufacturing, etc.
–China cut the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.7% from 1.8%. One-year prime lending rate authorized to drop to 3.35% from 3.45%.
–Auctions of 2, 5 and 7 year notes this week starting tomorrow. PCE prices on Friday.
–It’s not quite a bunker, but may have some potential in today’s environment (5 acres on a lake):
“What’s strange? EVERY surface is covered with expensive bulletproof Lexan – and I mean “every.”
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1360-Old-Trail-Rd-Maumee-OH-43537/34722959_zpid/
